1. Silicon wafer is the core raw material of the semiconductor industry
1. The threshold of silicon wafer manufacturing technology is high, and the localization space is broad
Semiconductor silicon wafer is the main carrier of semiconductor devices. Silicon wafers are the upstream raw materials of the semiconductor industry. By processing silicon wafers such as photolithography, etching, and ion implantation in downstream industries, silicon wafers can be made into various semiconductor devices for subsequent processing, such as integrated circuits, diodes, and power devices. Wait. As a semiconductor material, silicon wafer has good insulation and high stability of the semiconductor device, so it has been widely used in the semiconductor industry.
According to SEMI statistics, the global wafer fabrication materials market will total $34.9 billion in 2020. Among them, the sales of silicon wafers and silicon-based materials accounted for 36.64%, with sales of about 12.8 billion yuan. Semiconductor silicon wafers account for the highest proportion in the wafer manufacturing material market and are the core materials for semiconductor manufacturing.
The photovoltaic industry has low requirements for the purity of silicon wafers, which only needs to reach 99.9999%, while the silicon wafers used for semiconductor device processing have extremely high requirements for purity, which needs to reach 99.999999999%. In addition, semiconductor silicon wafers also have higher requirements on the flatness and smoothness of the silicon wafers. Because of this, the technical threshold for purification and processing of semiconductor wafers is extremely high, and the global semiconductor wafer market is highly monopolized. According to Siltronic statistics, the top five silicon wafer manufacturers in the world in 2020 are Shin-Etsu, SUMCO, Universal Wafer, SK Siltron and Siltron, which together account for 87% of the semiconductor wafer market.
my country's silicon wafer industry started late, and its technology accumulation is not as good as overseas. At present, domestic semiconductor wafer companies mainly produce semiconductor wafers of 6 inches and below, and a few companies have the production capacity of 8-inch and 12-inch semiconductor wafers. Before 2017, almost all 12-inch semiconductor wafers were imported. In 2018, Shanghai Xinsheng, a subsidiary of Shanghai Silicon Industry Group, became the first company in mainland China to achieve large-scale sales of 12-inch silicon wafers, breaking the situation that the localization rate of 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers was almost 0% for a long time. In recent years, domestic manufacturers have accelerated the R&D investment and construction of semiconductor silicon wafers. Many manufacturers have achieved breakthroughs in semiconductor silicon wafers from 8 inches to 12 inches. At present, there is huge room for domestic substitution of semiconductor silicon wafers, and domestic manufacturers are expected to fully benefit in the future. Localization of semiconductor silicon wafers.
2. Classification of silicon wafers from size and application scenarios
With the development of the semiconductor industry, the terminal demand for semiconductor devices continues to increase. As the core raw material of the semiconductor industry, the size and technical production level of silicon wafers are also continuously improving, and the product types are also enriched. For semiconductor silicon wafers, it can be further classified according to size and application scenarios.
(1) Classification by wafer size:
Si wafer size is increasing following Moore's Law. In 1965, 2-inch (50mm) diameter wafers were first mass-produced, followed by 4-inch (100mm), 6-inch (150mm), and 8-inch (200mm) wafers in the following 30 years, and then 12-inch (200mm) in 2000. 300mm) silicon wafer to achieve mass production. The increase in the diameter of the silicon wafer increases the area of the silicon wafer by a square level, which in turn doubles the number of chips that can be produced on a single wafer. The larger the wafer diameter, the lower the average production cost of the chip, which in turn provides more economies of scale. But at the same time, the production process improvement cost and equipment performance improvement required for the production of larger diameter silicon wafers will also bring higher fixed cost input to manufacturers in the initial stage of production.
The larger the size of the silicon wafer, the lower the unit cost of the chip. Therefore, 8-inch and 12-inch large-size silicon wafers are currently the mainstream in the industry. Among them, 12-inch silicon wafers are particularly popular, and the shipment area has continued to grow year after year. According to SEMI statistics, the shipment area of 12-inch silicon wafers in 2019 reached 7.93 billion square inches, accounting for 67.2% of all semiconductor silicon wafer shipments. According to IC Insights' forecast, the proportion of 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity is expected to increase to 71.2% in 2021.
18-inch (450mm) silicon wafer is the next stage in the development of 12-inch (300mm) silicon wafer, and it has successfully broken through in technology. However, because the current 8-inch and 12-inch silicon wafers can better meet the current market demand, and the production equipment involved in 18-inch silicon wafers is difficult to mass-produce, the fixed cost input required is high, and the upstream and downstream of the industry chain need to upgrade. The power of the 18-inch wafer production line is very limited. We believe that the mainstream silicon wafer sizes in the market will remain at 8 inches and 12 inches for the foreseeable future.
(2) Classification by application scenario:
From the application scenarios of silicon wafers in fabs, silicon wafers can be divided into Dummy Wafer, Monitor Wafer and Prime Wafer. Among them, the blanks and control chips are generally cut from the places with poor quality on both sides of the ingot, which are used to debug the machine and monitor the yield. With the advancement of the fab process, based on the accuracy requirements and yield considerations, it is necessary to increase the monitoring frequency in the production process. For every 10 positive films cast in the 65nm process, 6 block control films need to be added, while for the 28nm and below process, every 10 positive films need to add 15-20 block control films.
The amount of the blanks is huge. In order to avoid waste, the fabs often recycle the used blanks, grind and polish them, and reuse them. However, the number of cycles of the blanks is limited. Scrap for disposal or use as photovoltaic silicon wafers. The wafers need to be dealt with on a case-by-case basis. The wafers used in some special processes cannot be recycled. Those control wafers that can be recycled and reused are also called reclaimed wafers.
3. Production process of semiconductor wafers
Semiconductor wafer production process is complex. First, the silica in sand and ore can be purified by carbon heating to produce industrial-grade silicon with a purity of more than 98%; on this basis, industrial-grade silicon is produced by chemical reaction to trichlorosilane, and then the Siemens method is used to use Hydrogen reduces trichlorosilane to semiconductor grade polysilicon with a purity of 9-11 9s.
Semiconductor grade polysilicon is then melted in a quartz crucible, and doped with boron (P), phosphorus (B) and other elements to change its electrical conductivity, and then placed in a seed crystal to determine the crystal orientation, and through single crystal growth, it is made into a specific Electrically functional monocrystalline silicon ingots. The single crystal silicon ingot is then processed into shaping, slicing, chamfering, etching, polishing, cleaning, inspection, packaging and other process steps, and finally becomes the most common polished wafer in semiconductor silicon wafers.
In each production process, semiconductor silicon wafers need to reduce crystal defects as much as possible and maintain extremely high flatness and surface cleanliness to ensure the reliability of integrated circuits or semiconductor devices.
Single crystal growth is the most important process in the production of polished wafers, and its technologies are mainly divided into Czochralski (CZ) and zone fusion (FZ).
The Czochralski method first uses a resistance or radio frequency heating coil to heat the polysilicon until it melts, and then uses a seed crystal silicon contact Czochralski device to contact the surface of the liquid silicon. After contact, due to the temperature difference, liquid silicon solidifies on the surface of the seed crystal and grows a single crystal producing the same crystal structure. At the same time, the seed crystal is pulled up at a very slow speed and rotates at a certain speed, and finally a single crystal ingot is formed. This scheme can observe the crystal growth during the crystal pulling process, but it is easily affected by mechanical disturbance.
The zone melting method forms a melting zone locally in the polycrystalline silicon ingot by heating the wire, and the melting zone will slowly move from the end of the seed crystal to the end of the silicon ingot. At the solidification interface, impurities are distributed between the molten silicon and the crystalline silicon and are pushed from the seed crystal side to the opposite side. Through multiple melting and refining, high-purity single crystal silicon can finally be obtained.
However, due to technical limitations, the zone melting method can only produce silicon wafers of 8 inches (200mm) and below, and the cost, output, impurity control and other indicators are not as good as the Czochralski method. Therefore, the current mainstream process in the market adopts the Czochralski method. . The single crystal silicon produced by the zone melting method is mostly used in power transistors, solar cells, etc.
In addition to the most common polished wafers, after different processing procedures, semiconductor silicon wafers also have many special products, the most important of which are Epitaxial Wafer, Silicon-On-Insulator Wafer, etc.
Epitaxial wafer: The production of epitaxial wafer is to heat the polished wafer to about 1200 ℃ in an epitaxial furnace, and then let the silicon wafer and the vaporized epitaxial growth source contact each other, so that the silicon wafer is grown on a layer with a certain thickness, with a certain thickness. Resistivity, a certain type of new single crystal. Common epitaxial growth sources are mainly silicon monochloride (SiCl), dichlorosilane (SiHCl2), silicon trichloride (SiCl3) and tetrachlorosilane (SiHCl4). Epitaxial wafers have lower series resistance than polished wafers, eliminating the thyristor effect of CMOS and many of the surface/near-surface defects introduced during crystal growth and subsequent wafer processing.
SOI (Silicon-On-Insulator): Silicon-on-Insulator, also known as SOI, is a new type of silicon material. SOI is a sandwich structure, with a top layer of silicon on top, a buried oxide layer (BOX) in the middle, and a silicon substrate below. The technologies for preparing SOI mainly include isolation by oxygen injection (SIMOX), bond thinning (BESOI) and smart stripping (Smart-Cut), etc. The most mainstream technology at present is smart stripping.
SOI has many advantages, including high speed, low power consumption, low cost, and good radiation resistance. Among them, the most important advantage of SOI is that it can achieve high electrical insulation through the oxide layer, thereby greatly reducing the parasitic capacitance and leakage of silicon wafers. With the continuous evolution of semiconductor process technology, the advantages of SOI solutions have gradually become prominent.
According to Marketsand Markets estimates, the average compound growth rate of the SOI market will reach 29.1% from 2017 to 2022, and the market value in 2022 is expected to reach 1.86 billion US dollars.
4. Looking to the future: three generations of semiconductors are on the rise, but silicon-based devices are still the mainstream
There are three generations of semiconductor materials. The first-generation semiconductors, led by silicon-based and germanium-based semiconductors, have mature technologies and are widely used. The emergence of the first generation of semiconductor materials replaced the electronic tube, leading the development of the microelectronics industry with integrated circuits as the core and the leap of the IT industry.
The second generation semiconductors are represented by gallium arsenide (GaAs) and indium phosphide (InP). On the one hand, the electron mobility of second-generation semiconductors is faster than that of silicon-based semiconductors, so it is suitable for high-frequency transmission, and has applications in wireless communications such as mobile phones, wireless local area networks, and satellite positioning. On the other hand, second-generation semiconductors have a direct band gap, so they are suitable for light-emitting applications such as light-emitting diodes (LEDs), laser diodes (LDs), light receivers (PINs), and solar cells.
The third-generation semiconductor materials, mainly including SiC, GaN, diamond, etc., are also called wide-bandgap semiconductor materials because their forbidden band width (Eg) is greater than or equal to 2.3 electron volts (eV). The current research focus of the third-generation semiconductor materials focuses on silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) technologies, of which SiC technology has the fastest progress. STMicroelectronics has now achieved mass production of 8-inch SiC. 8-inch SiC will ship in high volumes.
Silicon-based semiconductors are always the first choice in the market.
The three generations of semiconductor materials are not substitutes, but complement each other according to different characteristics, each with different application scenarios. Silicon wafers are mainly used to manufacture various types of integrated circuits, with mature technology, stable cost, and wide application. They are the mainstream choice in the current market. The third-generation semiconductor materials led by SiC and GaN perform better in environments such as high temperature, high power, high frequency and radiation resistance, and are currently widely used in radio frequency devices and power devices.
According to Yole data, the market size of third-generation semiconductors with SiC and GaN will be US$1.493 billion in 2020, but according to Mordor Intelligence data, the market size of semiconductor silicon wafers in 2020 has reached US$10.79 billion. In terms of market size, silicon wafers are still the absolute mainstream of semiconductor materials.
II. Demand analysis: strong demand for semiconductor terminals, empowering silicon wafer growth
Global silicon wafer demand is mainly driven by semiconductor industry demand.
Silicon wafers are the most important raw materials in the semiconductor industry. Semiconductor devices produced on silicon substrates are used in various consumer electronics products, automotive electronics and industrial control fields. According to Gartner statistics, the downstream market of the semiconductor industry can be mainly divided into computing , wireless communications, consumer electronics, automotive electronics, industrial electronics, storage, wired communications, accounting for 30.8%, 27.5%, 10.5%, 10.5%, 8.3%, 7.4%, 4.8% in 2020, and it is estimated that in 2021 The annual sales growth rate was 9.5%.
1, 12-inch and 8-inch wafer demand maintains long-term growth trends
In terms of devices, semiconductor devices produced on 8-inch wafers and 12-inch wafers are different. As the advanced process technology is mainly produced in the 12-inch Fab plant, the 12-inch wafer is mainly used for the production of logic devices with high computing power, DRAM memory, 3D NAND memory, CMOS image sensors, etc.; the 8-inch wafer is mainly used for the production of CMOS images Sensors, power discrete devices, MCU, analog devices, power management chips, display driver chips and other mature process chips.
Because the semiconductor devices produced by 8-inch wafers and 12-inch wafers are different, their end applications are also quite different. From the perspective of the terminal application market scale, the main downstream application areas of 8-inch wafers are automobiles, industry, smartphones, white goods, IoT, etc., of which automobiles account for 33%, industry accounts for 27%, and smartphones account for 27%. 19%; the main downstream applications of 12-inch wafers are smartphones, PCs, tablets, servers, games, automobiles, industry, etc., of which smartphones account for the largest share, reaching 32%, PCs and servers account for 20%, 18%.
12-inch silicon wafer: strong terminal demand drives long-term growth of 12-inch silicon wafer demand
From the perspective of wafer area demand, the strong terminal demand will drive the long-term growth of the semiconductor industry's demand for wafer area. According to Siltronic statistics, the terminal market with the largest demand for 12-inch wafer area in 2020 is the smartphone market, accounting for 25%, followed by the PC, industrial, server, and automotive markets. The semiconductor devices with the largest demand for wafer area are logic devices, accounting for 34%, followed by other devices such as 3D NAND memory, DRAM memory, and power.
Since the second half of 2020, the global shortage of cores has driven the boom in the semiconductor industry, which has directly driven the industry's demand for upstream silicon wafers to grow. The global silicon wafer shipment area reached a new high in the second quarter of 2021, reaching 3,534 million square inches, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Driven by a variety of terminal applications, the global supply and demand of silicon wafers will remain tense. We believe that industry trends such as 5G mobile phones, automotive electrification, ADAS, data centers, and IoT will drive structural improvements in the semiconductor industry’s demand, thereby driving Long-term growth in demand for silicon wafers. According to SUMCO statistics, the global demand for 12-inch silicon wafers in 2Q21 exceeded 7.1 million pieces/month.
According to the global 12-inch wafer demand forecast data released by SUMCO, the global 12-inch wafer demand will reach 7.2 million pieces/month in 2021 and 9.1 million pieces/month by 2025, of which the terminal with the largest demand Applications are smartphones, followed by data centers, PCs/tablets, and automobiles, with the fastest growing demand for 12-inch wafers in data centers and automobiles.
8-inch silicon wafer demand: 8-inch silicon wafer demand grows steadily under low production expansion efforts
According to SUMCO data, the global demand for 8-inch wafers reached 5.9 million wafers per month in 2Q21. Driven by the above industry trends, the market segments such as analog devices, power discrete devices, and CMOS image sensors will grow steadily, reaching 8 The growth in demand for inch silicon wafers provides a long-term stable driving force. From the perspective of the capacity expansion of downstream fabs, due to factors such as insufficient supply of 8-inch wafer equipment, hard to find second-hand equipment, and weak willingness to expand 8-inch wafer capacity in fabs, the global 8-inch wafer capacity expansion is relatively small. According to SEMI's February 2019 global 8-inch wafer capacity outlook, we expect global 8-inch wafer capacity to reach 6.2 million wafers/month in 2021 and 6.4 million wafers/month in 2022.
2. Smartphone: The increase in the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones drives the long-term growth of silicon wafer demand
The driver of the smartphone market’s growing demand for silicon comes from the replacement wave of 5G phones.
With the commercialization of 5G communications, the market penetration of 5G mobile phones is also increasing. Compared with 4G mobile phones, 5G mobile phones have the advantages of faster data transmission speed, higher computing performance, larger storage capacity, and better high-definition video processing capabilities. , CMOS image sensor, baseband processor, RF front-end, power management chip and other chips have greatly improved the performance requirements. According to SUMCO data, the demand for 5G mobile phones has increased by 70% compared with that of 4G mobile phones, which has led to a substantial increase in the demand for silicon wafers in the smartphone market.
The increasing penetration of the 5G mobile phone market will drive long-term growth in silicon wafer demand.
2020 is the first year for the large-scale popularization of 5G mobile phones. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, global smartphone sales have declined. The popularity of 5G mobile phones has not been as fast as expected, and the annual penetration rate is less than 20%. However, with the recovery of the global mobile phone market and the continuous increase in the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones, it is expected that the global penetration rate of 5G smartphones will increase to 40% this year, and the smartphone market will drive long-term growth in silicon wafer demand. According to SUMCO's forecast, the global smartphone market demand for 12-inch silicon wafers will exceed 1.5 million pieces per month in 2022.
3. PC/Data Center: Epidemic boosts short-term demand growth, and long-term power comes from data traffic
The epidemic has caused the "home economy", driving the demand for PCs and tablets to grow.
The epidemic in 2020 has brought some changes to people's students and lifestyles. People's demand for remote home office, online education, and online entertainment has driven the growth of PC and tablet PC demand. Since 2Q20, global PC, tablet PC Sales of computers have gradually increased. In 4Q20, global PC sales reached 91.59 million units, and tablet PC sales reached 52.2 million units, both setting historical records in recent years. Although shipments in 1Q21 fell by 8.3% QoQ due to the seasonal impact of the PC market, this was the smallest drop in the first quarter since 2012.
According to SUMCO's forecast data, global PC+tablet PC shipments will reach the peak level in the next five years in 2021, and PC shipments will exceed 300 million units, driving the global demand for 12-inch silicon wafers for PC+tablet PCs to increase in 2021 There is a substantial increase, reaching more than 9 million pieces/month, of which the demand for NAND memory in PCs has grown the most. However, as the number of stacked layers of 3D NAND memory continues to increase, the storage capacity per wafer area will also continue to increase. Therefore, the contribution of NAND memory to the demand for 12-inch silicon wafers in the subsequent PC market will decline slightly.
Growing demand for data centers is another driver of long-term growth in demand for 12-inch silicon wafers.
In the short term, due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the demand for online meetings, online courses, etc. will drive the global server shipments to rise rapidly in Q2 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. In the second half of the year, as the epidemic situation improved, the server market entered the stage of destocking, and shipments remained flat year-on-year with a slight decline. In the long run, with the rapid development of industrial trends such as cloud services, 5G communications, AI, and IoT, global data traffic has shown explosive growth. According to SUMCO and CISCO, global IP traffic will double in 2022 compared to 2019 section>
From the point of view of the capital expenditure of cloud vendors
In 2020, the capital expenditures of FAAMG and the eight major cloud service providers in China's BAT continued to rise, and the total capital expenditures in Q4 2020 exceeded US$45 billion, setting a record. This shows that cloud vendors are unanimously optimistic about future data center demand and are confident in maintaining long-term growth in future data traffic. The demand for DRAM memory, NAND memory, CPU/GPU and other processor chips in data centers will drive the demand for silicon wafers to maintain a long-term growth trend. According to SUMCO's forecast data, the global data center demand for 12-inch silicon wafers in 2025 will exceed 1.6 million / In June, the CAGR for the six-year period 2019-2025 is about 10.8%.
4. Automotive electronics: electrification and intelligence drive long-term growth of automotive silicon content
The trend of vehicle electrification will lead to a significant increase in the silicon content of bicycles.
Compared with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, the demand for MCUs, sensors, power semiconductors and other devices for new energy vehicles has greatly increased, especially the largest increase in power semiconductor devices. The power output inside the car needs to be converted by power devices such as MOSFETs. In addition, IGBT modules play a crucial role in electric vehicles and are the core technical components of electric vehicles and charging piles and other equipment. According to statistics from Strategy Analytics and Infineon, the value of a 48V mild hybrid vehicle power device is about $90, while the value of a power device in a full plug-in hybrid vehicle and a pure electric vehicle (BEV) is about $330. close to 4 times.
The improvement of automobile intelligence puts forward higher requirements on the performance of automobile chips.
With the development of automotive intelligence and the Internet of Vehicles, ADAS, cockpit entertainment, and V2X all have higher requirements on the computing power and connection capabilities of automotive chips, because autonomous driving technology needs to process a large number of image signals, radar signals, etc. Data computing, fusion, and decision-making are performed in a very short period of time. Cockpit entertainment requires smartphone and tablet-level processor chips. V2X requires cars to connect in real time with other vehicles, roadside, and the cloud within a very short delay time. . The growth of the autonomous driving level requires an exponential increase in computing power and an increase in the number of sensing chips such as sensors, which will drive the increase in the chip area required for automobiles.
From the perspective of the whole vehicle, the demand for silicon wafer area for a single new energy vehicle will be twice that of an internal combustion engine vehicle.
According to the data calculated by SUMCO, the demand for silicon wafer area for a single vehicle of internal combustion engine is about 8.9 square inches, the demand for silicon wafer area for hybrid electric vehicles is about 19.4 square inches, and the demand for silicon wafer area for pure electric vehicles is about 17.9 square inches. ADAS requires about 4.4 square inches of silicon wafer area.
The trend of the times is great, and new energy vehicles will gradually replace internal combustion engine vehicles.
Due to the demand for environmental protection and carbon reduction, major countries in the world have issued plans to ban the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles. It is expected that by 2040, major countries in the world will no longer sell new internal combustion engine vehicles, and hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles will be fully replaced.
With the gradual increase in the market penetration of new energy vehicles and ADAS, the demand for silicon wafers in the global automotive market will also increase steadily. According to SUMCO forecast data, it is expected that by 2024, the demand for silicon wafers in the global automotive market will exceed 2.5 million pieces/month equivalent to 8-inch wafers. In terms of wafer size, the demand for 8-inch wafers will increase the most, reaching 1.5 million pieces/month in 2024; while the demand for 12-inch wafers will reach 370,000 pieces/month in 2024.
Three, supply analysis: overseas manufacturers dominate, domestic alternatives are broad
1. The global competition pattern is stable, dominated by overseas manufacturers, and there is a large space for domestic alternatives
Global silicon wafer shipments have shown a fluctuating upward trend since 2008.
The economic crisis in 2008 caused a setback for the silicon wafer industry. In 2009, the global silicon wafer shipments fell by 17.57% year-on-year. From 2010 to 2013, the global economy gradually recovered, which supported the rebound of the silicon wafer industry. However, due to the still sluggish global economy, the shipment volume remained relatively stable in the past four years. Since 2014, due to the rise of emerging downstream applications and the popularization of 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafer technology, the overall shipment volume has gradually increased, reaching 12.733 billion square inches in 2018. In 2019, global silicon wafer shipments decreased by 7.25% year-on-year to 11.81 billion square inches, mainly due to the softening of the memory market and the normalization of inventories. In 2020, market shipments increased by 5.06% year-on-year.
Since 2017, silicon wafer prices have returned to the rising channel.
Under the influence of the post-financial crisis from 2009 to 2011, the world's major silicon wafer manufacturers canceled their expansion plans, resulting in a contraction in the supply side, so the price of silicon wafers showed a slight upward trend. However, since 2012, the price of silicon wafers began to decline. The price of silicon wafers dropped from US$0.96/square inch in 2012 to US$0.67/square inch in 2016, mainly due to the overcapacity in the silicon wafer market due to the smooth implementation of the manufacturer's expansion plan. . After six years of continuous decline, silicon wafer prices returned to the rising channel in 2017. From 2017 to 2019, silicon wafer prices rose from US$0.74/square inch to US$0.95/square inch, mainly due to emerging markets such as new energy vehicles. The rapid development and the rapid penetration of 5G mobile phones have brought about strong demand in the semiconductor terminal market, and the market supply and demand structure has changed.
Since the second half of 2020, the global semiconductor industry has continued to grow, and the upstream silicon wafer market is no exception. Benefiting from the continued strong downstream demand, global semiconductor wafer manufacturers have expressed their willingness to increase prices since the end of 2020. In December 2020, Global Wafer took the lead in proposing the intention to increase the price of silicon wafers in the spot market, and stated that the company's 12-inch, 8-inch, and 6-inch wafer production lines are running at full capacity. In March 2021, Shin-Etsu Chemical, the world's largest semiconductor wafer manufacturer, announced that it will increase the price of all its silicon products by 10%-20% from April, mainly due to the rising cost of silicon metal, the main raw material of silicone, and the strong growth of Chinese market demand. This is the first time Shin-Etsu Chemical has raised prices since January 2018, resulting in a shortage of supply.
Large silicon wafer manufacturers are cautious in expanding production, and the pattern of leading players is stable.
The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 affected the electronics industry, and the demand for chips dropped sharply. SUMCO, a major silicon wafer manufacturer, cancelled its capacity expansion plan until 2010. The gradual recovery of the global economy in 2011 drove global manufacturers to resume production expansion. However, guided by previous customer demand forecasts, excess production capacity and slow market recovery made global silicon wafer manufacturers relatively cautious in expanding production. Since 2016, the supply and demand structure has changed, and the price of silicon wafers has gradually recovered; in 2017, the market began to exceed demand, and mainstream silicon wafer manufacturers around the world have resumed their production expansion plans. The plant has been expanded, but the new plant has a long cycle, which takes 2-3 years on average. Therefore, the production capacity of some new plants will be gradually released from 2019.
According to SUMCO's forecast, the global 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity will continue to expand in the future, but the overall expansion of large silicon wafer manufacturers is more cautious, the growth rate of production capacity is slow, and the downstream demand is growing rapidly, so the relationship between supply and demand will be in the next 3- Overall tight in 4 years. The capital expenditure of the three mainstream silicon wafer manufacturers SUMCO, Shin-Etsu and Shichuang also confirms the above point of view. In 2020, the capital expenditure of the three major silicon wafer manufacturers decreased by 9.36%, 13.67% and 48.48% year-on-year respectively, indicating that the major overseas suppliers of semiconductor wafers are relatively cautious in expanding production.
Looking back at the development of the silicon wafer industry, mergers and acquisitions are the most effective way to expand.
Whether it is Shin-Etsu, SUMCO or Global Wafer, etc., they are constantly expanding their market share through mergers and acquisitions. Among them, Shin-Etsu acquired HITACHI in 1999 and became the leader in the global silicon wafer industry. SUMCO, formerly known as Silicon United Manufacturing Corp., officially changed its name after acquiring SUMITOMO and MITSUBISHI in 2002, and further acquired KOMATSU in 2006. SK Siltron acquired LG Siltron in 2017 and DuPont SiC Wafer Division in 2019. Global Wafer acquired CoorsTek, Topsil and SEMI in 2012 and 2016 after being separated from China and the United States in 2011. In November 2020, Global Wafer announced the acquisition of Shichuang. After the merger, Global Wafer will become the second largest company in the world. The world's second largest silicon wafer manufacturer in Shin-Etsu has further increased the concentration of the silicon wafer market. So far, the world's top five silicon wafer suppliers have become the four largest, namely Japan's Shin-Etsu, Global Wafer, SUMCO and SK Siltron. The total in 2020 Occupy 87% of the global silicon wafer market.
2. The localization of semiconductor materials is imperative, and local silicon wafer manufacturers accelerate their deployment
In the current silicon wafer manufacturing market, silicon wafer manufacturers represented by Shin-Etsu, SUMCO and other foreign and Chinese Taiwan Global Wafers still occupy a major market share. According to the statistics of the core idea and the Shanghai silicon industry prospectus, the total proportion of the world's top five silicon wafer manufacturers in the past three years from 2018 to 2020 is 92.57%, 88% and 87% respectively. However, from a trend point of view, the total share of the world's top five silicon wafer manufacturers has gradually declined, and mainland Chinese silicon wafer manufacturers have accelerated production expansion to squeeze the share of leading manufacturers.
At present, the domestic wafer demand side accounts for about 6% of the global market. If foreign wafer manufacturers building factories in the mainland are included, the overall demand accounts for about 15% of the global wafer demand.
According to SUMCO's forecast, future demand will continue to increase steadily. According to the statistics of Chip Thought, the domestic demand for 12-inch silicon wafers is 1 million pieces per month, and it is expected to reach 1.3-1.4 million pieces by December 2021. According to SEMI's forecast, global semiconductor manufacturers are expected to open 29 high-capacity fabs by 2022, 16 of which will be located in mainland China and Taiwan, China, and most of them will be 12-inch fabs, so Demand for 12-inch silicon wafers continues to grow in fabs.
Due to the feature that the larger the silicon wafer area, the higher the utilization rate, and the ability to effectively reduce the unit cost, large-sized silicon wafers have gradually become the mainstream. At present, the global silicon wafer supply market is dominated by 8-inch and 12-inch silicon wafers. However, due to the impact of technical process and cost in domestic silicon wafer manufacturing, most companies supply silicon wafers below 6 inches. At present, only some domestic silicon wafer manufacturers have 8-inch and 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity, but the overall development trend is good in the long run. According to the statistics of Core Thought, the installed capacity of 8-inch polished wafers and epitaxial wafers in mainland China in 2020 will be 2.06 million wafers/month and 1.975 million wafers/month respectively. It is expected to reach 2.61 million wafers/month and 2.15 million wafers/month respectively in 2021. It is expected to grow by 26.7% and 8.86% year-on-year, respectively.
Most of the domestic 12-inch silicon wafer production lines have not been put into large-scale production, but with the gradual maturity of 12-inch silicon wafer production technology and the increase in demand for logic chips and memory chips such as CPU/GPU, the future will gradually shift to 12-inch silicon wafers. inch silicon wafer transition. The domestic manufacturers with 12-inch silicon wafer supply include Shanghai Silicon Industry (Shanghai Xinsheng), Chongqing Chaosilicon, Xi'an Yisiwei, Zhongxin Wafer, Zhonghuan Leading, Leon Micro (Jin Ruihong) and other 6 companies. There are more than 15 manufacturers of production lines. According to the statistics of the core idea, the installed capacity of 12-inch polished wafers and epitaxial wafers in mainland China in 2020 will be 415,000 wafers/month and 75,000 wafers/month, respectively. fast.
According to IC Insights statistics, China's silicon wafer production capacity in 2018 was 2.43 million pieces per month, and mainland China's silicon wafer production capacity accounted for 12.5% of the global silicon wafer production capacity. The Chinese government encourages the localization of semiconductor materials and supports Chinese manufacturers to conduct research and development, so that domestic silicon wafer technology continues to improve. As the production capacity of silicon wafers for semiconductor manufacturing continues to shift to China, IC Insights predicts that the production capacity of fabs in mainland China will reach 4.1 million wafers per month in 2022, accounting for 17.15% of global production capacity.
Domestic silicon wafer manufacturers are on the rise. The production capacity of 8-inch and 12-inch silicon wafers is widely distributed all over the country, and local manufacturers are springing up like mushrooms after rain.
Fourth, grasp the replacement of Dongfeng by domestic manufacturers, and accelerate the expansion of production by domestic manufacturers
At present, the global semiconductor wafer market is monopolized by five manufacturers from Japan, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries and regions, with nearly 90% of the market share. The domestic semiconductor wafer industry started late. Before 2017, almost all 12-inch semiconductor wafers were imported. In 2018, Shanghai Xinsheng, a subsidiary of Shanghai Silicon Industry Group, was the first company in mainland China to achieve large-scale sales of 12-inch silicon wafers, breaking the situation that the localization rate of 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers was almost 0%.
The overall production capacity of silicon wafers in mainland China has increased investment. Currently, there are more than ten manufacturers engaged in silicon wafer production, including Shanghai Silicon Industry, Zhonghuan Co., Ltd., Leon Micro, Zhongxin Wafer, Super Silicon, and Shengong Co., Ltd. Various silicon wafer manufacturers have put into production 8-inch and 12-inch large-scale silicon wafer projects. Among them, Shanghai Silicon Industry's 8-inch silicon wafer production capacity has reached 450,000 wafers/month, including a total production capacity of 400,000 wafers/month for epitaxial wafers and polished wafers, and SOI silicon wafers. 50,000 pieces/month, 12-inch silicon wafers reach 250,000 pieces/month; Zhongxin Wafer’s 8-inch and 12-inch silicon wafer production capacities reach 450,000 pieces/month and 100,000 pieces/month respectively; Central Tianjin and Yixing factories 8 The total production capacity of inch silicon wafers is 600,000 pieces/month, and the production capacity of 12-inch silicon wafers is 20,000 pieces/month and 50,000-100,000 pieces/month respectively, and the Jiangsu base will start the second phase of the project to continue to expand production for large-size silicon wafers in the future help.
1. Shanghai silicon industry: semiconductor silicon wafersLeading, leading the way of domestic substitution
The company's main business is the research and development, production and sales of semiconductor silicon wafers. It is the first enterprise in mainland China to achieve large-scale sales of SOI silicon wafers and 12-inch silicon wafers. The product types provided by the company cover 12-inch polished and epitaxial wafers, 8-inch and below polished wafers, epitaxial wafers and SOI silicon wafers. The company has many well-known customers at home and abroad, including international chip manufacturers such as TSMC, UMC, GlobalFoundries, and all major domestic chip manufacturers such as SMIC and Huahong Grace, with customers all over the world. At present, the Shanghai silicon industry accounts for 2.18% of the global semiconductor wafer market share.
The first SOI silicon wafer manufacturer in China to achieve localization of 12-inch silicon wafers.
In October 2016, the first 12-inch monocrystalline silicon ingot was successfully pulled out. Xinao Technology, a subsidiary of the company, used Soitec's proprietary Smart Cut technology to produce 8-inch SOI wafers successfully, achieving an annual production capacity of 180,000 wafers. In 2017, the whole process flow of 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers was completed, and in 2018, the large-scale production of 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers was finally realized, filling the gap in the industrialization of 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers in mainland China. The company can currently supply 4-inch to 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers, of which 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafer products have achieved full coverage of 14nm and above technology nodes and full coverage of domestic 12-inch customers.
The company's 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity from 2018 to 2020 is 100,000 wafers/month, 150,000 wafers/month and 200,000 wafers/month respectively. According to the company's semi-annual report, the 12-inch wafer production capacity will increase to 300,000 wafers in 2021 tablets/month, a year-on-year increase of 50%.
The company's 8-inch silicon wafer production and sales in 2020 were 3.81 trillion yuan and 3.7204 million, up 24.25% and 13.65% year-on-year, respectively, and 12-inch silicon wafer production and sales were 1,033,600 and 904,600, up 43.58% year-on-year. % and 32.19%. From the perspective of revenue, the company's 8-inch silicon wafer revenue in 2020 accounted for 69.29%, which is still the company's main source of revenue, but 12-inch silicon wafer revenue increased rapidly by 46.85% year-on-year. In the future, with the acceleration of the 12-inch silicon wafer process and the continuous increase in production capacity, the production, sales and revenue of 12-inch silicon wafers will increase rapidly.
2. Zhonghuan Co., Ltd.: Photovoltaic + semiconductor dual-wheel drive, semiconductor business is progressing smoothly
The company's main business revolves around silicon materials, focusing on the research and development and production of monocrystalline silicon, taking monocrystalline silicon as the starting point and foundation, positioning strategic emerging industries, and developing in the direction of in-depth and extension. Vertically extends in the field of semiconductor manufacturing and new energy manufacturing, forming a semiconductor plate, including semiconductor materials, semiconductor devices, and semiconductor packaging.
Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. started the construction of the 8-12-inch large-diameter silicon wafer project in 2017, and planned the production capacity of 8-inch and 12-inch silicon wafers to be 1.05 million pieces/month and 620,000 pieces/month. In 2020, the Tianjin factory has achieved a production capacity of 300,000 wafers/month for 8-inch silicon wafers, and the Yixing factory is also expected to reach 300,000 wafers/month. At present, the company's 8-12-inch semiconductor silicon wafer production line project for integrated circuits has raised a total of 4.5 billion yuan, and as of 2020, the project progress has reached 51.16%. In 2021, the company plans to realize the commissioning of the Fab2 crystal growth plant in the leading Inner Mongolia base in Central Ring, further expansion of the 8-inch power semiconductor products in the Tianjin base, and the launch of the second phase of the 8-12-inch project in the Jiangsu base to expand its market share in this field. It is expected that the 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity will reach 170,000 pieces/month in 2021.
The company's semiconductor material revenue from 2018 to 2020 was 1.013 billion yuan, 1.097 billion yuan and 1.351 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 7.36%, 6.5% and 7.09% of the total revenue respectively. The overall revenue is increasing. The company's semiconductor production and sales in 2020 will be 631 million square inches and 627 million square inches, respectively, an increase of 37.65% and 38.74% year-on-year, mainly due to the company's 12-inch wafers. Major breakthroughs in key technologies and product performance and quality have been mass-produced and supplied to China. Major manufacturers of digital logic chips and memory chips, meanwhile, 5-inch, 6-inch and 8-inch businesses grew steadily. In 2021, the company will continue to increase investment and asset structure adjustment in Central's leading Inner Mongolia base, Tianjin base and Jiangsu base to expand market share in the field of semiconductor silicon wafers.
3. Leon Micro: The troika pulls together, and the advantages of industrial integration are obvious
The company's main business is the research and development, production and sales of micro-semiconductor silicon wafers and semiconductor discrete device chips, as well as the production and sales of finished semiconductor discrete devices. The company's subsidiaries Zhejiang Jinruihong and Quzhou Jinruihong are mainly engaged in the business of semiconductor silicon wafers (excluding 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers). The main products include silicon grinding wafers, silicon polishing wafers, and silicon epitaxial wafers. The company's semiconductor wafer revenue from 2018 to 2020 was 798 million yuan, 759 million yuan and 973 million yuan respectively, accounting for about 65% of the total revenue, which was relatively stable.
3. Leon Micro: The troika pulls together, and the advantages of industrial integration are obvious
The company's main business is the research and development, production and sales of micro-semiconductor silicon wafers and semiconductor discrete device chips, as well as the production and sales of finished semiconductor discrete devices. The company's subsidiaries Zhejiang Jinruihong and Quzhou Jinruihong are mainly engaged in the business of semiconductor silicon wafers (excluding 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers). The main products include silicon grinding wafers, silicon polishing wafers, and silicon epitaxial wafers. The company's semiconductor wafer revenue from 2018 to 2020 was 798 million yuan, 759 million yuan and 973 million yuan respectively, accounting for about 65% of the total revenue, which was relatively stable.
